Photovoltaic reduction "boots landing" industry faces "new rules"

From June 1st, Italy, the world's second largest PV market, will officially implement the latest solar subsidy policy. At this point, the policy adjustment "boots" of Germany and Italy, which accounted for nearly 70% of the global PV installed capacity, officially landed, which laid a definite growth foundation for the global PV market growth in the second half of the year.   In the current background of the major demand countries, the PV industry is oversupply, and the price of the year-to-date price declines, the PV industry in the second half of the year will face new rules different from the past. The gross profit margin of the photovoltaic industry will move down as a whole. In the past, the situation in which large and small manufacturers have a living space will inevitably be divided. Component manufacturers will face a trend of differentiation in this year and become a major trend this year to the next few years. First of all, we need to talk about the demand of the global PV market. It is unrealistic for Germany and Italy to grow sharply compared with last year. The slight increase in installed capacity is a more optimistic judgment, and the new volume is mainly expected to have huge potential markets such as the United States and China. The latest draft solar regulations issued by the Italian government will set a limit for photovoltaic subsidies, subsidizing 6-7 billion euros per year. The subsidy will last until the end of 2016. The estimated fashion capacity is about 23GW, with an average annual rate of 4GW. Sexually optimistic view. Last year, the installed capacity of Italy was around 3GW, and this policy adjustment is likely to be the same as last year. In addition, the German market, the world's largest PV consumer, has implemented a step-down tariff policy since July, and the volume-price relationship will constrain the overall installed revenue. In fact, the current industry expects the United States and China, which have great potential, to bear the influence of the policy of launching the German and Italian policies. The National Development and Reform Commission’s energy sources expect that “China will try to have 1 GW of installed capacity this year.” However, there is still no Certainty, and the complexity of US state government policies, it is difficult to see certainty in the short term. It seems more realistic to maintain a more cautious and objective growth of around 20% this year. Secondly, the slowdown in demand growth has led to a shift in supply and demand, and the overall downturn in the industry chain will gradually look to the “manufacturing industry”. In essence, the introduction of the reduction policies of major demanding countries is not to suppress the application of photovoltaics, but to make top-down adjustments to the high profits of the photovoltaic industry chain. Since the beginning of this year, in addition to upstream polysilicon, the price of components and battery chips has continued to fall, and some of the battery prices have been at the low level of 1 US dollar / W. The price decline was mainly caused by the imbalance between supply and demand. On the one hand, the production capacity was rising, and the other side of the shipment was decreasing. According to the market research company IMS report, the production capacity of photovoltaic modules has increased by nearly 70% in 2010, and the production capacity will reach 35GW in the first half of the year. In the first quarter of this year, global PV module shipments in the first quarter fell by nearly 10%. Although the price has continued to fall since the beginning of this year, in fact, the overall gross profit margin of the PV industry is not low. The more profitable the upstream sector, such as the gross profit margin of polysilicon, is more than 50%, the most downstream component manufacturers are currently As a sad one, most rely on extending the industrial chain to level the gross profit. In general, the integrated gross profit margin of industrial integrated companies is about 15-35%, which varies greatly depending on the structure of the industrial chain. In terms of the most profitable polysilicon in the photovoltaic industry, with the announcement of expansion plans by many international polysilicon plants including GCL-Poly and WACKER, the market supply of polysilicon will continue to increase substantially from next year to 2015. The still strong polysilicon price will also return to a reasonable profit margin level as the market demand slows down and supply increases. Finally, under the background of relatively low-speed market growth and oversupply, second- and third-line brand manufacturers will gradually withdraw from market competition, and industry reshuffle will begin to be officially staged. In 2010, the PV market was in short supply, which gave the second-tier enterprises a living space. As long as there is goods, they can make money, but this year's demand-side market growth rate will decrease, and this market phenomenon will cease to exist. Although the global demand in the first quarter is down year-on-year, we can see from the relevant quarterly report of listed companies that although many manufacturers of first-tier manufacturers have not achieved the expected shipments, they still have a large increase year-on-year. This growth is bound to be squeezed. Small market share. Recently, Trina Solar has lowered its shipments in the first quarter from 351MW to 320-322MW, compared with 192.6MW in the same period last year. The growth rate is still amazing, while maintaining the annual shipment of 1.75-1.8GW, compared with 2010. About 65%. This is not a case, including Tianwei Yingli and Jingao Energy are confidently set to grow by more than 50% for their full-year shipment growth. Often the turning point of the entire market pattern is in an environment where the market suddenly deteriorates. In the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the photovoltaic industry will inevitably face a situation in which the overall profit decline and industry concentration will be similar to the wind power industry. In the long run, this is to make the photovoltaic industry more motivated to reduce costs, improve conversion efficiency, and ultimately achieve the only way to evaluate the Internet.

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