Downstream demand is sluggish, and copper is difficult to premium
In terms of spot copper, LME copper stocks rebounded slightly from last week, and June 14 reported that copper stocks were 618,075 tons. Shanghai copper stocks closed at 183,410 tons on the 14th, and the chain rebounded for the third consecutive week. The absolute value of stocks in both places is still in the historical high zone. Considering the tightening of domestic financing copper imports, domestic copper imports are expected to remain in the second half of the year. The sharp decline in the first half of the year, while the copper and copper stocks will continue to maintain the overall upward trend, which will continue to pressure the future copper prices. The spot trade of domestic and foreign copper is generally good. The situation of domestic spot copper turning into discount is quite different from that of previous years. In the past, it was generally necessary to enter the third quarter after the domestic spot copper offer will gradually end the seasonal premium, which is ahead of this year. This reflects the relatively low demand for copper spot demand during the year, coupled with the pressure of high inventory, the high premium of spot copper offer in the peak season of consumption is difficult to achieve.
Downstream industry reshuffle, copper is easy to fall
In terms of domestic macroeconomics, the domestic economic data released in May before the Dragon Boat Festival showed signs of slowing down, especially the PPI, which was declining year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, reflecting that domestic industrial enterprises are still reducing their prices to inventory. According to the author's field research, the domestic cable industry as the terminal downstream industry of the copper industry chain has also entered the reshuffle period. At this stage, most companies inevitably choose the defensive strategy. This is why the copper spot performance is relatively low this year. . The expansion in the past few years has brought heavy debt burden to most enterprises. This undoubtedly prolongs the strategic defensive period of the enterprise in the current market environment. The defensive behavior of the enterprise is strengthening the current weak market environment. Under the vicious circle, it is expected In the second half of the year, the downstream industry of the domestic copper industry is still difficult to improve. The seasonal discount of spot copper quotation will gradually start in the spot market, and the futures copper price will continue to fall easily.
Technically, the weekly level is high and the rest is over.
Technically, the current copper price has ended the previous week's weekly high-level range. At present, it is worth noting that Lun Copper’s position ended in May and fell back in May, and once again climbed back to the high value area in 2011. For this reason, we have reason to believe that the return of international funds will inevitably have a big move, based on futures. The zero-sum game characteristics, copper prices will have a large unilateral market in the future. From the perspective of the monthly line, the rebound of copper prices in May did not form a continuous rebound signal at the monthly level, which means that the current copper price is in the resonance period of the long-term downtrend and the mid-line decline. In the short-term, the current Shanghai copper will take a small break under the gap in the previous week, and the small-day oscillation of the daily line will need a shorter transition time.
In terms of strategy, the author suggests that investors should hold short positions in the long-term. In the short-term, they can continue to add short positions along the gap of 52,000 yuan/ton in the short-selling gap last week. New participants can also rely on this position to conduct empty single-slot trials. For wind control, the dynamic stop loss points of short-term orders should be more cautious, and the mid-line orders can be appropriately relaxed. For the spot users, in the case that the downstream demand is difficult to improve, the author suggests to maintain a medium-to-high ratio of selling insurance and a low percentage of buying insurance. The downstream buyers try to purchase as much as possible on demand.
Downstream market demand is low, copper re-enters the decline
Abstract Last weekend, the Shanghai copper 1310 contract price fell to 51,450 yuan / ton, the copper price has been officially closed after the beginning of May. On Monday, Shanghai copper finally closed at 51,710 yuan / ton, the highest price in the session failed to break through last week's high point, the current copper price has been...
Last weekend, the Shanghai copper 1310 contract price fell to 51,450 yuan / ton, the copper price has been maintained since the beginning of May, the weekly level of rest has officially ended. On Monday, the Shanghai copper closed at 51,710 yuan / ton, the highest intraday price failed to break the previous week's high point, the current copper price has returned to the weekly level down trend.