Dialogue Wu Xuanzhi

Unexpectedly encountered Wu Xuanzhi

Reporter: I have taken some risks with your conversation today. One is that I don't understand the film; the other is the silicon and the film. There is a fierce debate between the different routes of the film. In the eyes of the average person, the introduction of this is like depreciation. That, this is not the purpose of this dialogue. Although I didn't understand the film, I was unable to stop with the first solar company (abbreviation: First Solar) phenomenon, especially when I saw an article entitled "Solar Thin Film Company Bankrupts" in the previous two days, I was anxious to know how to treat the film. industry. Today I came to know you unexpectedly. Whether it is from the reasons for new knowledge of the industry and the pursuit of business preferences, or from the simple understanding of the background of your research and the reason you can feel the conscience of a scholar, I know that I have encountered a knowledge of Gold mine. Whether it can be fully developed is my comprehension and writing skills. For my own research, in order to give others a perspective, I want to challenge myself.

First of all, I want to clarify the basis of our dialogue. It can be divided into two levels. One is to stand at least on the basis of discussing the future of supplemental energy; the other is based on the discussion of a technical route of photovoltaic power generation. I prefer to be in the Based on a discussion of issues. Because whether it can still develop 200 years or 500 years, there is always a time when traditional energy sources are exhausted. In particular, human beings are increasingly pursuing a friendly eco-environment, and the inherent deficiencies that are difficult to erase from traditional energy sources make it difficult for humans to find new energy, and it is accompanied by several stages of discussion, supplementation, and substitution. To become an alternative energy source, there must be two prerequisites: the source of energy must be infinite; the means to obtain this energy must be infinite. I wonder if we can discuss the future of the cadmium telluride thin film industry on this basis.

Wu Xuanzhi: I almost read all your articles. I know you don't understand thin film technology, but I know you are a person who loves the photovoltaic business and speaks responsibly. Like you, I also love the photovoltaic industry. It is a veteran on the photovoltaic front. After graduating from university in 1962, I have been engaged in the research of semiconductor materials and devices. Since 1980, he has entered the photovoltaic industry. For more than 30 years (including 20 years of research work in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory of the United States), I have involved most of the research and development of photovoltaic technology, including: monocrystalline silicon, polysilicon, amorphous He has published more than 100 papers on silicon, HIT, InP space batteries, TPV, CIGS, and cadmium telluride.

At this crucial moment in the development of the Chinese PV industry today, I am very pleased to accept your invitation to participate in this dialogue. I will use the data to speak on the basis of facts.

You don't know cadmium telluride

Reporter: Before you introduce the cadmium telluride industry, I would like to introduce my understanding and judgment first. For the cadmium telluride industry, I never read any words. First, crystalline silicon cells account for more than 80% of the photovoltaic market. According to analysis, this pattern will be maintained for a long time. My research focuses mainly on the market side; Second, a friend who knew materials science told me that thorium and cadmium, as well as copper, indium, zinc, selenium and other materials belong to rare metals, and some are even national strategic reserve materials. This does not meet my goal of becoming an alternative energy source. Basic conditions. The first solar energy is a special case, with the support of the United States; third, the early thin-film batteries have a certain market space is the result of the relative cost advantage of crystalline silicon cells. Now that the cost of crystalline silicon batteries has dropped drastically, the competitiveness of thin-film batteries from cost to conversion rate will no longer exist. Fourth, Shi Zhengrong, who is studying thin-film technology, is stumbling over the industrialization of thin films and is no longer interested. In my impression, apart from Hanergy, no one in China is willing to take this single-plank bridge. So many smart companies are unmoved by everyone, and I don’t seem to have the ability and the need to research. Today met you and Long Hao. It was an accident and a surprise.

Wu Xuanzhi: The information you collected is incomplete, so your conclusions are biased. Today, I just wanted to introduce several thin-film battery technologies for terrestrial applications and their development overview. From this you may learn why there are still people who insist on the development of thin-film batteries.

In addition to space-use compound thin-film batteries (such as GaAs, etc.), there have been four types of thin-film battery technologies for terrestrial applications in recent years: polycrystalline silicon thin films, amorphous silicon thin films, copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) polycrystalline thin films, and germanium. Cadmium (CdTe) polycrystalline films.

Polycrystalline silicon thin-film batteries (such as Shi Zhengrong's battery), the logic of the battery itself is a contradiction: the absorption coefficient of polysilicon film is low, only 1/100 of other films, not suitable for thin film batteries; high-quality polysilicon film needs to be at high temperature Under the preparation, inexpensive glass or the like cannot be used as the substrate, and the cost is hardly reduced. There are only one company in the world that carries out the industrialization of polycrystalline silicon thin-film batteries, and in the end it has not been able to go up (<10%) due to the efficiency of the components, and the cost has not dropped.

Amorphous silicon thin-film batteries are the first to achieve industrialization among several thin-film batteries. The production technology is relatively mature and the cost is relatively low. However, there are two major weaknesses of amorphous silicon batteries: The first is the low efficiency. From the characteristics of the material itself, amorphous is not as good as polycrystalline, and polycrystalline is not as good as single crystal. This is an objective law and no one can break through. The second is the recession of components caused by the intrinsic recession of the absorber material by 15% (multiple junction) - 25% (single junction). In the field of photovoltaic power generation, amorphous silicon thin-film batteries have been difficult to have strong competitiveness.

CIGS has good material characteristics, easy to form a good back electrode and high-quality pn junction, and because of its battery structure, it is easier to make flexible CIGS components. The efficiency of the CIGS laboratory has reached 20.3%, and the total area efficiency of the components has exceeded 16%. Some companies in Europe, America and Japan have already realized the industrialization of CIGS. Continuing to increase the deposition rate, increase the yield of superior products, and increase the utilization of materials to reduce costs are still issues that need to be addressed in the industrialization.

The intrinsic material characteristics of cadmium telluride itself and the practice of its development have proven that cadmium telluride polycrystalline thin film solar cells are an efficient and inexpensive solar cell suitable for large-scale production. The efficiency of the small-area battery in the laboratory has reached 19.6%, and the total area efficiency of the module has reached 16.1%. Two technologies that have been used for industrialization: Close Sublimation (CSS) and Vapor Transport Deposition (VTD) are particularly suitable for large-scale production. The first solar energy in the United States grew from 0.2 MW in 2002 to 2 GW in 2011, and production increased by 1,000 times in eight years, becoming the world's largest membrane module manufacturer. Cadmium telluride has a low temperature coefficient and excellent low-light response, which is 5-10% higher than that of a crystalline silicon battery. At the same time, cadmium telluride thin-film modules are environmentally friendly products. The research conclusions of uranium cadmium discharge at the Brookings National Laboratory in the United States are: cadmium telluride batteries have the same cadmium emission as natural gas, lower than that of petroleum, coal, and other types of solar cells. . The European Union, which has very strict environmental protection regulations, has exempted RoHS from its requirements in 2011 (the full name of the “Directive on the Restriction of the Use of Certain Harmful Substances in Electrical and Electronic Equipment”) and believes that cadmium telluride thin-film batteries are either manufactured or It is safe and controllable to use.

In recent years, Europe and the United States have supported CIGS and CdTe thin-film solar cell technologies, and have continued to make major breakthroughs. The efficiency of the full-area module for both thin-film batteries exceeds 16%. This has exceeded the efficiency of most polysilicon full-area modules sold on the market. At the same time, its costs continue to decline. In other words, when these technologies are transplanted into the production line and become products, the photoelectric conversion efficiency and cost will certainly pose a huge challenge to the crystalline silicon components. Our relevant competent authorities should be aware of the changes in technological development in this industry, and make timely countermeasures to intensify efforts to support the development and industrialization of thin-film battery technology and improve the competitiveness of China's new photovoltaic technologies.

Long Yao has been making progress

Reporter: After listening to your remarks, when you rejoiced to open a "skylight" for me, it will inevitably lead to a great deal of confusion, even to the company and you. I used to invest in the past. I know that capital and the market are the smartest. Any business opportunity can't escape its “eye”. Capital and the market are the most ruthless. It will not be just for any entrepreneur. And pay "pay". Since cadmium telluride technology is as strong as you have said, since the company has the technology leadership you have mentioned and the entry of several famous venture capitals, the company can have been established for five years, according to my standards. The development results of Longxi Company should be more brilliant than today. In this regard, I do not know whether cadmium telluride should be questioned or question your management ability. Because I like Long Hao also like your ideal, so my request may be both ruthless and unreasonable.

Wu Xuanzhi: Your question is very good, very representative, and very sharp. I am willing to answer your question. I have been working in the photovoltaic industry for more than 30 years. I have seen many companies taking the thin film technology route up and down. I understand more clearly that Long Yao is going to innovate and how difficult it will be to develop an independent intellectual property right.

Long Hao’s decision to implement the industrialization of cadmium telluride solar cell technology in China is not a hasty personal will but a result of scientific analysis. Before the establishment of the company, we collected a large amount of data and reports, analyzed the domestic and international PV market demand, and learned from successful and failed companies in the industrialization of cadmium telluride. Our conclusion is that there are opportunities for the industrialization of cadmium telluride technology in China. The large photovoltaic market is not monopolized by one or two photovoltaic companies. Cadmium telluride is not only a VTD technology adopted by First Solar, but the modified CSS technology decided by Longmiao is another excellent industrialization technology.

The industrialization of Longxi is implemented in four phases: preparation, R&D, pilot production and establishment of production lines. But in fact, it is all about three things: First, research and development of new materials and new technologies, and establish a full set of production processes with independent intellectual property rights. Several of the new materials and new technologies are used for the first time in the production of cadmium telluride; second, more than 40 sets of equipment used in the entire production line are all domestically produced, among which multiple equipment is Longquan with intellectual property rights. The core equipment; Third, the integration of technology and equipment, built the first 30MW, fully automated nationwide production of cadmium telluride solar cell module production line. By optimizing the production line process, the average module efficiency reached 12%. At present, Long Hao's products have matured, and have obtained product certifications such as TUV, Golden Sun, and UL. At present, they are beginning to be sold to the world and domestic markets.

I would like to introduce two more examples to help you understand whether the "dragonfly speed" is fast or slow. From this you may realize a truth: simply repeat the expansion and development of a new technology, the difficulty of industrialization is completely different, and the standard should not be the same. Case I: SolarCell Inc., the predecessor of the first solar energy, started research on cadmium telluride industrialization since 1991, purchased solar energy from SCI in 1999, and began mass production of cadmium telluride components in 2002. (At the time, the module efficiency was only 7-8%. It took 11 years and went public in 2006. It took 15 years. In Case 2, the PrimeStar company acquired by General Electric of the United States (GE) began research and development in 2006. Later, GE headquarters and four global centers have teams to invest in cadmium telluride research. The annual research and development cost invested up to 30 million US dollars. Now GE has achieved a world record for laboratory cadmium telluride battery efficiency: 19.6%, but it has not yet achieved mass production. The construction plan for their 400MW production plant has decided last year to postpone the decision after 18 months.

Speaking of this, I can proudly tell you that Long Hao only spent a year equivalent to GE's research and development expenses and spent more than three years in China to achieve the industrialization of cadmium telluride thin-film technology. Completed a fully automated, fully automated, nationwide production and cadmium telluride production line with an annual production capacity of 30WM, and achieved stable mass production. The average efficiency of the components reached 12%. The photovoltaic industry is rare. Indeed, the growth rate of Longxuan in the past two years is not very satisfactory. This is a result of the "cold winter" environment in which China's photovoltaic industry is located, a serious surplus of production of crystalline silicon modules, and the result of a long-term loss of the "price war" in the entire industry. The entire industry is faced with the problem of survival. The research and development of new technologies is even less attention. The photovoltaic industry is a non-completely marketized industry. It needs the support of the state and society.

Looking at the role of the state from the success of First Solar

Reporter: I suddenly realized a key problem: I can't use the growth rate of the early famous Chinese PV companies in my concept to request Longsheng Company. At the same time, I also understand more about the Chinese PV industry, which was once invincible in the European and American markets. Why would we not be able to deal with the “double reverse” in Europe and America? Because most of the early Chinese PV companies, the core technology is foreign, the key equipment is foreign, and more embodies the characteristics of the processing industry, although this feature is currently accelerating change. The company is a company that has been pursuing independent intellectual property rights in both technical lines and key equipment since its inception. It is an innovative company that has spent more than three years to achieve this primary goal. You have the awareness and foundation of the first solar energy. Unfortunately, in the past, you did not catch up with the opportune time for the photovoltaic battery supply, and now you cannot enjoy the mature industrial environment owned by First Solar. My feeling is: as long as there is a business opportunity, Long Hao will come to the fore.

Since Longxi Company is determined to become China's first solar energy, what fulcrums are needed to achieve this goal? This is a topic that I am very interested in, because it concerns how the country develops photovoltaic companies with independent intellectual property rights in the early days of development. In the past, I interpreted the first solar energy as follows: The technology is unique and leading. When others are busy with “taking the doctrine”, they are firmly on their own path. The strategy is correct. When the others are not aware of the importance of the terminal market, they actively deploy the terminal. Market; financial stability, and when people's minds are expanding, they always keep a clear balance of assets and liabilities. Because I can't understand foreign languages, I can't study it in depth. I don't want to see you as an expert with a lot of connections to First Solar and I have a certain amount of research. I really hope to hear from you about this company's way of success. It has something for China's photovoltaic industry. What kind of industrial environment is needed for China to learn from such a company, or how can Long Yao become such a company?

Wu Xuanzhi: I worked with SCI and First Solar for 8 years while working at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. In the early stages of the preparation of Longxi, we analyzed First Solar as a successful company when analyzing the cadmium telluride technology route and several companies' experiences and lessons. We summarized what we should learn from them: First, high starting point, 1999 First Solar has a unique eye for the acquisition of SCI, a company that has been working on the industrialization of cadmium telluride thin-film batteries since 1991, making First Solar a high starting point from the very beginning. Second, VTD is their cost. The core technology developed over many years of hard work and huge amounts of money is that others cannot imitate duplication in a short period of time. This is the key to their long-term dominance of the cadmium telluride component market. Third, it attaches great importance to the reduction of component costs. Solar energy has always been to increase productivity and component efficiency as the main way to reduce costs; Fourth, the layout and development of advanced photovoltaic terminal markets, so that their component sales are not affected by market fluctuations, and at the same time make themselves the largest EPC in the photovoltaic industry. The fifth and very important one is that the success of the first solar energy is carefully nurtured and effectively supported by the U.S. government. It's open. From the establishment of SCI in 1991 to the first solar energy market in 2006, it has been receiving government funding and support. When First Solar needed technical assistance, the government organized the most professional scientists and university professors in the United States to form a “national team” to help them for several years. When the first solar energy was challenged by environmental protection, it was the government again. He invited other national laboratories (such as the Brookevin National Laboratory) to participate in environmental research. Through these efforts, we successfully persuaded the European Union to exempt RoHS requirements for cadmium telluride components, thereby promoting the widespread use of cadmium telluride components in Europe.

For Longxi, what is needed most is a policy to encourage the use of technological innovation, rather than simply relying on the size of the enterprise and how much of the production capacity is directed to support the photovoltaic industry. Only when the government authorities pay attention to these policies in order to inspire more companies to do technological innovation, will more companies like “China’s first solar energy” emerge in order to achieve “Made in China” to “China” Create a transformation. Secondly, Longxi hopes to find more strategic partners willing to devote itself to the industrialization of cadmium telluride battery technology in China and jointly develop this technology. Longxi is willing to accelerate the industrialization of this technology with an open mind.

At present, the government has launched the photovoltaic “State Six” and “State Council Document No. 24”, which has given us great warmth and made us see the hope of the photovoltaic industry. We also hope that the state will listen to our opinions when formulating detailed policies. For enterprises with small scale and reputation, but with independent intellectual property rights, formulate relevant supporting policies, because these companies are likely to be one of the competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry tomorrow.