The rising tide of raw materials has hit the manufacturing industry and passed the test of life and death.

The unknowingly, 2016 is so fast, the last two months are the traditional peak season. I thought I could earn some money for the New Year. Who knows that raw materials are skyrocketing, various accessories are also playing a higher price, transportation costs are rising, and labor costs are also To rise, even WeChat Alipay also charges a fee, deeply feel...
Unconsciously, 2016 is so fast, the last two months is the traditional peak season. I thought I could earn some money for the New Year. Who knows that the raw materials are skyrocketing, all kinds of accessories are also competing for price increases, transportation costs are rising, and labor wages are also Up, even WeChat Alipay also received a fee, and I feel pressure on Shanda... Faced with the year, two tears!
The most popular friend circle recently is up, up, and up.
The rising tide has come from all directions. 1. The raw materials are mad, and the middle industry has been hit by the industry in 2016. The housing prices have risen madly, and the coal, steel and paper industries are arrogant. After the house price was curbed, transportation, chemical raw materials, electronic components, packaging and printing began to surge. Under the frenzy of “up, up, and up”, China’s industrial sector has already boiled.
In the past two months, the price hikes in the upstream coal, steel, paper and other industries have surged. Under the influence of rising transportation costs and limited environmental protection, the fate of the intermediate industrial products has been fatally affected.
Coking coal price increase of 200%,
Glass prices rose by 40%,
Plastics price increases by 30%,
Aluminum prices rose by 30%,
Steel prices rose by 30%,
Stainless steel also surged 40%,
The freight price increased by 33.6%.
Industrial paper can't be bought with money...
2. Energy, raw materials, freight, and industrial manufactured goods took turns. In September 2016, the negative growth of the PPI for four and a half years was finally reversed, which marked the official opening of China's industrial sector. In fact, since the beginning of the year, bulk raw materials such as coal, iron ore, and paper have started to rise, and have been transmitted to the entire industrial sector in a few months.
3. Affected by de-capacity and other factors, coal-carbon steel mania was affected by factors such as industrial de-capacity and property market destocking. Domestic coking coal and thermal coal increased by 150% and 100% respectively compared with the end of last year. As of November 9th, according to the steel index data, the national leading city's three-level large thread close to the distance of 3,000 yuan / ton; the southwest and other prices are already high in the region has an average price of 3,100 yuan / ton, the aggressive offer is higher Looking straight ahead at 3,500 yuan, as shown below, the national increase since November has been around 300 yuan, and the southwest is more radical! The increase is nearly 400 yuan!
4. The chemical raw materials skyrocketing will affect the downstream industry in the past six months, and the upstream chemical raw materials began to soar. TDI rose from 10,000/ton at the beginning of the year to 50,000/ton; domestic rutile titanium dioxide increased from 9300 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The industry also firmly believes that it will continue to rise; neopentyl glycol has been 6000 The yuan/ton has risen to 13,800 yuan/ton. Compared with the beginning of the year, the market price has increased by more than 50%, and many varieties have doubled or even doubled, such as butadiene rubber, acetone, propylene, butadiene, butadiene rubber.
5. Paper industry: capacity concentration, pollution control and paper industry led to soaring prices Since the end of 2014, the price of raw paper has begun to rebound greatly. Since then, the price increase has become more and more fierce. In the spring of 2015, the cattle card has risen three times. In 2016, the white card has risen six times, and various price increases have generally flown to the downstream packaging and printing industry. Especially since entering 2016, the packaging base paper will rise every month, and the price increase rate is as high as 300 yuan/ton. Recently, even the cultural papers that are very depressed in the market have begun to rise.
6. Freight rates have risen and various industries have been affected. On September 21, the “Regulations on the Management of Overrun Transportation Vehicles” was implemented. In this history, the "most strict treatment of super orders", so that the freight costs rose. In some areas, the logistics volume increased from 6 yuan to 10 yuan, the transportation cost per ton of building materials increased by 100 yuan, the cost of feed transportation increased by more than 35%, the chemical raw materials rose by an amazing amount, and the coal carbon rose by 10 yuan/ton. .
7. After the raw materials skyrocketed, the middle industry began to retaliate. After the hard-boiled digestion of the previous rounds of raw paper, the packaging and printing industry could no longer hold on. The retaliatory rise began in October, the first batch of 10%. The increase has been fully rolled out, and the subsequent upward pressure is still very huge. In addition, glass prices rose 15%, circuit board price increases 10%, components price increase 5%, all aspects of industrial manufactured goods are brewing price increases.
Economic ecology is boiling, the real industry is deadly 2016
We say that no matter whether it is a natural ecological environment or an economic ecological environment, nothing is more important than stability. For China, the world's second-largest economy with low efficiency, high debt, environmental degradation and structural problems, any major adjustment may cause enormous damage to the ecological environment.
One scientist did an experiment and poured 27 kilograms of dry ice into a small swimming pool. In less than a minute, the whole pool was completely boiling. This is a huge stimulus to the ecological environment. However, China's printing of money over the years, 4 trillion economic stimulus, interest rate cuts, wage doubled, environmental governance, artificial bull market, de-capacity, property market destocking, and national entrepreneurship are all not strong.
After repeated strong stimulation, the ecological environment of the Chinese economy has already boiled. The price hike may be an external manifestation of the economic ecology, and the final outcome will inevitably lead to a new round of bankruptcy in the real industry.
1. In the coming year, the following industries will have a lot of bankruptcies. At the beginning of October, the Chinese government launched the most stringent real estate control policy. From the current situation, it is difficult for the real estate industry to have a big market in the coming year. Therefore, in addition to a large number of small and medium-sized housing enterprises, intermediary companies, home ownership companies will be closed down, Jiantao sanitary ware, hardware and building materials, home appliances, kitchen and bathroom, furniture, steel, cement and other industries closely related to real estate may suffer heavy losses. For some time to come, the reshuffle of these industries is inevitable.
In addition, in the past few years, the industries of packaging and printing, daily chemicals, textiles and clothing, toys, food, beverages, beer, retail, catering and so on have experienced the vicious competition of price reduction and quantity control caused by blind expansion. Under the circumstances that various costs have risen sharply and domestic and international market demand is sluggish, some enterprises with insufficient funds, sharp decline in orders, lack of innovation, and high debt will be the first to fall. Most of these closed enterprises belong to SMEs.
2. Various costs are increasing, and manufacturing companies without core competitiveness may have to catch a cold. For the current manufacturing development, the main factors of production are rising . A large part of the manufacturing industry's advantages in the past was built on low-cost labor, and now it has lost this advantage. All in all, everything is going up, but the ex-factory price continues to fall, and the bosses of the small and medium-sized manufacturing industry really want to cry.
According to the famous economist Xu Xiaonian, in terms of the challenges facing China's manufacturing industry, it is not the cost increase, but the overall level is low, especially in the basic materials, including electronic control and hydraulic power. There is still a big gap between the components and the basic processing technology compared with the international first-class companies. Due to the existence of this gap, the technological content of China's manufacturing products is low, the phenomenon of homogenization is widespread, and backward production capacity is excessive. In addition to price, enterprises have few other means of competition. Especially in the research and development stage, competition can only be achieved by price, which makes many enterprises in a state of small profits or even losses.
The technical level of China's manufacturing industry cannot adapt to the new situation. This is the unanimous consensus reached by the industry. The differentiation of enterprises and the core competitiveness of enterprises are not strong, making the manufacturing enterprises currently in a state of considerable operational difficulties. In this situation, and then encounter the cost of rising prices like the flu, I am afraid that some companies really want a bad cold.
What is the way out for Chinese manufacturing?
Manufacturing is the mother of all industries and the foundation of a country's economy. As the economist Ma Xiaohe said, there is no China today without China. From 1978 to the present, China Manufacturing contributed one-third of China's GDP. The manufacturing industry is developing fast, GDP is rising fast, the manufacturing industry is slow to develop, GDP is rising slowly, and the correlation is extremely high.
Where is the next step for Chinese manufacturing?
First, Internet thinking. The Internet is a genetic re-engineering that transforms all our relationships with consumers, transforms our production lines, transforms almost all of our capabilities, and takes advantage of the Internet to improve the status quo.
Second, the craftsman spirit. For the manufacturing industry, for example, to make a pair of leather shoes, why do I wear this pair of shoes? Not because your marketing is doing well. Because I am comfortable wearing this pair of shoes, Drucker said a word, the essence of business is that you make a pair of shoes sold to that consumer, this consumer is very comfortable wearing this shoes on the feet.
Third, we must change our ability to innovate, build building innovation, we must open up our innovation platform, and we must become part of the global industrial transformation. What is the manufacture of New China, we change its fate, or return to the industry itself, or to manufacture.
After the off-season, I died in the peak season!
Customers want to be cheap, merchants want profits,
Manufacturers have to survive, this is a desperate pace!
To stand up is victory,
Pay tribute to friends in the manufacturing industry!
Hard work!

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